Unit: Continuous Random Variables, the Normal Distribution, and the Central Limit Theorem

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You are a business analyst working in the mortgage banking industry. Your manager asked you to analyze staffing needs for the Foreclosure Department. The manager requested a detailed report because she is not familiar with statistics and computations needed to make conclusions. Hence, your report must be written in a descriptive manner that defines and explains key concepts, categories, and processes rather than just presenting math calculation. You should explain each concept, discuss advantages and disadvantages, and justify your recommendations. The expectation is that the report is an MS Word document that is 5 pages long. The following is what the manager gave you:

At the beginning of this year, the portfolio included 100,000 loans in various stages of the foreclosure process.
In the last 4 months, there has been a significant increase in the portfolio, as presented in the following table:

Month

January

February

March

April

% increase

5%

10%

15%

20%

Total # of loans

105,000

115,500

132,825

159,390

The department currently employs 50 employees and has a huge backlog. The department quickly needs to hire more people, but the management does not know how many. This report should help resolve this problem quickly.

Please include the following information in your report:

Compare and contrast various sampling approaches (e.g., large sample, small sample, convenience sample, and so forth). Apprise each of them, and select the one that you intend to use. Justify your recommendation.
Explain how you are going to overcome challenges associated with sampling biases. In addition, what assurances are taken to address ethics problems in the experimental design that may arise if you need to lay off employees in your department to replace them with offshore, less expensive employees, assuming that you do not want to see your friends losing their jobs?
Propose performance expectations (goals) for all employees by composing productivity data and providing mean, median, and mode values. Some information has been gathered from 9 employees, but feel free to replace these numbers with numbers that will be discovered in your research. The number of documents processed per hour per employee is 14, 17, 14, 14, 13, 16, 15, 21, and 12. Do not forget to create charts to visually enhance this section.
Determine the probability that current trends in foreclosed loans will continue. Discuss factors that, in addition to percent increase presented in the table above, can affect the accuracy of your forecast. You should know whether or not unemployment rate, consumer spending, currency exchange rates, house prices, or seasonal factors can affect the number of foreclosed loans.
On the topic of probability, prepare for potential risks, and know which of the factors affecting forecast accuracy, explained previously, are independent, dependent, or mutually exclusive. Please explain and provide examples.

Submitting your assignment in APA format means, at a minimum, you will need the following:

Title page: Remember the running head. The title should be in all capitals.
Length: 5 pages minimum
Abstract: This is a summary of your paper, not an introduction. Begin writing in third person.
Body: This begins on the page following the title page and abstract page and must be double-spaced (be careful not to triple- or quadruple-space between paragraphs). The typeface should be 12-pt. Times Roman or 12-pt. Courier in regular black type. Do not use color, bold type, or italics, except as required for APA-level headings and references. The deliverable length of the body of your paper for this assignment is 5 pages. In-body academic citations to support your decisions and analysis are required. A variety of academic sources is encouraged.
Reference page: References that align with your in-body academic sources are listed on the final page of your paper. The references must be in APA format using appropriate spacing, hanging indent, italics, and uppercase and lowercase usage as appropriate for the type of resource used. Remember, the Reference page is not a bibliography but a further listing of the abbreviated in-body citations used in the paper. Every referenced item must have a corresponding in-body citation.

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