causal claims

Assessing Causal Claims

The purpose of this exercise is for you to demonstrate: a) an understanding of the conditions that must be met in order for a causal relationship between two variables to exist; b) an understanding of the logic underlying these conditions, and c) an ability to assess each condition as it applies to a particular causal claim.

~~1. Identify a causal claim – i.e., an assertion of a cause that produces an effect. Assertions like these are everywhere!

-Go online to The New York Times or the Wall Street Journal (or any other media outlet a government agency, or an elected official’s (or candidate’s) web page, and pick a story, report, or policy proposal that interests you. Read through it, noting the causal claim(s) made in the piece you selected and any justification or evidence offered for the claim. Based on your reading:

1.Reproduce/state the causal claim.
2.Identify the cause and effect in the claim.
3.Summarize any justification or evidence for the claim.
4.List each of the four conditions required for a causal relationship to exist. In a few sentences describe the logic that each encapsulates.
5.Assess the causal claim you’ve identified against each of the four conditions. In other words, evaluate the likelihood that each condition is met for the causal claim you identified. Be sure to do this individually, for each condition. For each condition you should write a paragraph or two explaining the reason you believe the causal claim either a) meets the condition, b) does not meet the condition, or c) is unclear.